Book Reading Recorder

record booke reading

Think, Fast and Slow

Introduction

1=Ⅰ 2=Ⅱ 3=Ⅲ 4=Ⅳ 5=Ⅴ 6=Ⅵ 7=Ⅶ 8=Ⅷ 9=Ⅸ 10=Ⅹ 11=Ⅺ 12=Ⅻ

Part Ⅰ. Two Systems

1. The Characters of the Story

2. Attention and Effort

3. The Lazy Controller

4. The Associative Machine

5. Congnitive Ease

6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes

7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions

8. How Judgments Happen

9. Answering an Easier Question

Part Ⅱ. Heuristics and Biases

10. The Law of Small Numbers

11. Anchors

12. The Science of Availability

13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk

14. Tow W’s Specialty

15. Linda: Less is More

16. Causes Trump Statistics

17. Regreesion to the Mean

18. Taming Intuitive Predictions (131)

Part Ⅲ. Heuristics and Biases

19. The Illusion of Understanding (21)

20. The Illusion of Validity (22)

21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas (26)

实践检验:专家不如“公式化”意见,尤其是在对人的“未来”事件进行预测时。当下的评估会受到halo effect、system 1的各种偏见影响,甚至是在没有意识到的场景下。

而公式化评估是有方法论的。Paul E. Meehl

  1. 选定需要评估的彼此独立的角度,如“专注度”、“社交性”等,不超过6个
  2. 创建“事实性”的问题进行评估,用1-5分评估每一个方面的得分。
  3. 甚至不需要加权处理,综合得分最高的即可

22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? (214)

23. The Outside View (228)

评估事件时的外部视角和内部视角。实例说明,站着内部视角时,会自动忽略“外部视角”。导致本来外部视角可以带来的锚定效果背忽略。

更严重的是甚至不知道“外部视角”的存在(unknown unknowns),完全从内部视角进行评估。

24. The Engine of Capitalism

Part Ⅳ. Choices

25. Bemoulli’s Errors

26. Prospect Theory

27. The Endowment Effect

28. Bad Events

29. The Fourfold Pattern

30. Rare Events

31. Risk Policies

32. Keeping Score

33. Reversals

34. Frames and Reality

Part Ⅴ. Two Selves

35. Two Selves

36. Life as a Story

37. Experienced Well-Being

38. Thinking About Life

Conclusions

 
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