Think, Fast and Slow

Introduction

1=Ⅰ 2=Ⅱ 3=Ⅲ 4=Ⅳ 5=Ⅴ 6=Ⅵ 7=Ⅶ 8=Ⅷ 9=Ⅸ 10=Ⅹ 11=Ⅺ 12=Ⅻ

Part Ⅰ. Two Systems

1. The Characters of the Story

2. Attention and Effort

3. The Lazy Controller

4. The Associative Machine

5. Congnitive Ease

6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes

7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions

8. How Judgments Happen

9. Answering an Easier Question

Part Ⅱ. Heuristics and Biases

10. The Law of Small Numbers

11. Anchors

12. The Science of Availability

13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk

14. Tow W’s Specialty

15. Linda: Less is More

16. Causes Trump Statistics

17. Regreesion to the Mean

18. Taming Intuitive Predictions (1/31)

Part Ⅲ. Heuristics and Biases

19. The Illusion of Understanding (2/1)

20. The Illusion of Validity (2/2)

21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas (2/6)

实践检验：专家不如“公式化”意见，尤其是在对人的“未来”事件进行预测时。当下的评估会受到halo effect、system 1的各种偏见影响，甚至是在没有意识到的场景下。